German GP Betting Preview: Nico’s race to lose?
The 2014 German Grand Prix has been set up beautifully and could be something quite special. Nico Rosberg and Mercedes once again have pole, but the rest of the field appears to be a lot closer to the Silver Arrows.
What makes this even more exciting is the prospect of Lewis Hamilton starting from the pits. We have seen him have to fight through traffic at both of the last two Grands Prix and, on both occasions, he has been up with Rosberg by about lap 5.
If the predicted rain falls on the Hockenheimring then this will make it all even more exciting!
Though he has said that he would have to have been smoking something to think that the win is possible, Hamilton’s prematurely ended qualifying session massively boosts his price to 6/1.
Although I have predicted that the race through the pack will end in disaster for Hamilton at the last two Grand Prix and have been proven wrong, I personally feel that this could be a bridge too far. If you agree and think that Hamilton will fail to finish then you can pick this up at 9/2. If you go one step further and say that he will be the first to retire then you can get this for a boosted 33/1!
The odds really put Rosberg as the clear favourite at 2/7. Valtteri Bottas is a good price at 9/1 should Rosberg come into problems but, like I said earlier, it is expected to rain and this really could open the field. Therefore Fernando Alonso at 66/1 is surely worth a couple of quid. We know that he is pretty much the only driver who can out-perform his car session after session so I have a sneaky feeling that he could deliver. Odds of 9/2 for a podium finish make him one of the favourites to be best of the rest.
Rain breeds crashes and is a fan’s best friend. Who doesn’t love a wet race? Lap one could very well be carnage, especially with Pastor Maldonado in his regular spot near the back and in close vicinity to Esteban Gutierrez. If four or more drivers retire on the exploratory lap one then you could make a tidy profit at 14/1.
The bookies seem to think that the rain will cause a fair few retirements. Under 16.5 finishers is priced odds on at 4/6 while over that amount is 11/10.
Nico Rosberg to Win 2/7
Valtteri Bottas Podium Finish 8/13
Less than 16.5 Finishers 4/6
Worth a Punt
Fernando Alonso to Win 66/1
Four+ First Lap Retirements 14/1
Images courtesy of Octane Photographic.